Blog – A Is there a peak in consumption?
Here Is An interesting item we saw in French news today. (Please pardon the self-translation)
An excerpt from the
article, “Blog – Is there a peak of consumption?” Can Be found below. Please read the Entire Article at this link: Blog – Is there a peak in consumption .
If one were to characterize it in mathematical terms, the trajectory of our civilization is an exponential curve. Throughout the twentieth th century, energy and natural resources – and logically emissions of greenhouse gases – has increased with population growth.
But today, would we have reached a plateau? Would we have begun to reduce our consumption, or at least stabilize? Parsimony would it becoming the new luxury? This is what a crowd , who believes that Britain, a country behind the Industrial Revolution and one of the richest nations in the world, have reached a maximum of objects owned by each person before see this much decline. This is the “peak stuff” (“peak of Things”), in the vein of peak oil (peak oil) or gas peak (peak gas).
During the past decade, particularly before the economic crisis, Britain has less consumed in all sectors: less building materials (- 4% between 2000 and 2007) less water, paper (- 18%), food (especially meat), fewer car trips and less than textiles or fertilizer. The primary energy production has also followed the same downward trend (- 3%). And the country also produces less waste. All this, while GDP continued to grow, as well as population growth.
total, and while the volume of the economy has tripled, the total amount of things that every Briton uses each year – about 30 tonnes – would have recovered its 1989 level, after a “peak objects “reached between 2001 and 2003, the U.S. site Fastcoexist , unearthed by the Monthly Terra Eco . ” / p>
Similar trends have begun to emerge across Europe, where energy consumption of households in 2009 was 9% below the 2000 level. In France, Sweden and the Netherlands, the decline has even reached 15%.
decoupled growth and consumption
The origin of the data? Chris Goodall, both conservationist, an expert on energy and climate issues, parliamentary candidate of Great Britain for the Green Party, but also a former McKinsey consultant, used to manipulate the statistics.
“My purpose is not to deny that the world will face environmental challenges massive . But the data I collected suggest that economic growth is not necessarily inconsistent with these challenges “, he said at
course, Goodall’s thesis has generated a lively debate as among environmentalists and economists, it is shifted. On the one hand, optimists like Jesse Ausubel , Director of the Environment Programme at the University of Rockefeller New York, sees in these numbers a long-term trend, irrepressible, which is the logical outcome of what economists call the Environmental curve Kuznets , named after its inventor Simon Kuznets. This curve suggests that as countries industrialize, they go through an early phase during which they waste resources and generate a massive pollution before it reaches a tipping point beyond which they begin to invest in resources more efficient. Then comes a gradual decrease in the amount of materials and energy needed to generate each dollar of gross domestic product. Ausubel calls this process the “dematerialization” .
Relocation consuming industries
“The idea that the transition to a sustainable economy will emerge spontaneously, giving free rein to the market is false” , retorts in the . “It is comforting to believe that we are weaned from our dependence on material things. But historical analysis shows that all declines in consumption in the UK the majority are quite small: a few percent decade. In many cases, these figures are lower than the statistical margins of error measures “, says the expert.
Besides the study of Goodall does not include the relocation of industries consuming resources to developing countries. Thus, if the consumption of oil, coal or gas is falling in Britain, the total carbon emissions, once diverted discharges from foreign factories producing laptops, toys, clothes UK, .
Still, the idea of ??a “peak stuff” raises interesting questions: how to ensure that consumption will not rise again, and even more strongly than in the past? And if Britain really has peaked, how is it managed? Was it only the transition from an economy based on the industry to a service-oriented economy and the growing importance of the Internet? Or the fact that the British Isles are short of space for businesses, housing and transport? Or a population increasingly interconnected as living more in the cities
Researchers do not yet have answers to these questions. But no one doubts that the reasons will eventually be found and help others reach their “peak objects.” To send a message key, in a world that will soon reach 9 billion people: less little better.
Audrey Garric
P. S. : You can now follow my blog on Facebook, where I just created the page Eco (lo) . And always on Twitter: @ audreygarric .
AFP PHOTO / Toru YAMANAKA
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